Detection of drought pattern in sudan using standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI)

Detection of drought pattern in sudan using standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI)

Author: 
Yousif Elnour Yagoub, Zhongqin Li, Omer Said Musa, Feiteng Wang, Mohammad Naveed Anjum, Zhang Bo and Ji Ding-min
Abstract: 

Recent climatic changes are posing great threat to natural resources and biodiversity worldwide and the threat is particularly eminent in Sub-Saharan Africa, urging for better adaptation interventions. In turn, in this study, we explored the drought pattern in Sudan and South Sudan for the period between 1961 and 2013. Consistent with several recent studies those characterized drought patterns; we used the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) of drought to explore possible drought events in two countries Sudan and South Sudan over the last 53 years. Our analysis documented results about drought in these two countries. While in Sudan temperature is increasing, precipitation is dramatically decreasing. In south Sudan, we saw opposite scenario where temperature is generally has a declining trend and precipitation is increasing. Also, the recurrence last drought periods for the most times was moderate except the fact that in 1984, 1991, and 2000 most of Sudan and South Sudan has witnessed extreme and severe drought periods. There is a wide seasonal and spatial variability in drought intensity, as some areas became drier in summer and wetter in autumn and winter. Overall, we provide evidence that the drought is persistently occurring in Sudan with a prolonged periods. This information is of high value for setting up adaptation and mitigation strategies related to forest and natural resources. Furthermore, we caution that our study has no intention to predict the future of drought in both countries as this is beyond our objectives.

Paper No: 
1348