The twin pillars of electrification: can heat pumps & electric vehicles advance Europe towards net zero?

Author: 
Christian Hald-Mortensen

This academic paper investigates electrification in Europe, with a focus on heat pumps and electric vehicles (EVs), crucial to the transition towards net-zero. Amidst the Ukraine conflict, electrification emerges as a vital investment trend, essential for climate stabilization through the transformation of the building and transportation sectors. The research explores two questions: the trends and barriers in deploying heat pumps within European buildings, and the feasibility of the EU’s goal of adding 30 million heat pumps by 2030. This exploration reveals the market dynamics, technological advancements, policy, and economic factors influencing the adoption of heat pumps, crucial for the transition from fossil-based heating solutions. Secondly, the paper scrutinizes the dynamics, progress, and challenges in EV adoption in Europe, essential for understanding the expected acceleration in EV sales due to the 2035 ban on carbon-emitting vehicles. Through a review of literature, market reports, and policy documents, the paper extracts data on sales trends, technological advancements, policy incentives, barriers, and forecasts for both heat pumps and EVs in Europe. With accelerated sales of heat pumps, notably in Germany, and an uptick in EV sales bolstered by stringent policies, the paper integrates recent research efforts to understand the adoption barriers and drivers for heat pumps and EVs, crafting a narrative outlining their progress and challenges. The paper illuminates Europe's electrification path, offering insights for academia, policymakers, and industry participants navigating electrification's twin pillars.

Paper No: 
4819